'Do it the hard way': Difficult playoff path ahead for Pacific FC
Just how important is home field advantage in the chase for the North Star Shield? Have Pacific FC missed a golden opportunity?
Oh, November. How far away the glorious days of summer feel. How joyful those starry nights in late August and early September seem in retrospect. How distant, too.
The playoff picture is set for Pacific FC. There will be no more home stands at Starlight Stadium. No pre-match Brazilian barbecue. No full-throated chants of “Blasco’s on fire.” No hordes of purple-clad supporters.
Instead, the path to the North Star Shield leads through Cavalry FC and, if Pacific are lucky, the eventual winner of Forge FC and York United FC. This is the hill the Langford-based side have built for themselves after ending their season with six losses in their last nine matches.
“We finished third because we deserved to finish third,” PFC head coach Pa-Modou Kah told the Times Colonist’s Cleve Dheenshaw. “We’ve got to do it the hard way.”
You reap what you sow.
It is not a hill Pacific needed to climb—not with a result in either of their last two matches. A win over York, even a draw against Cavalry with the right cards falling, and PFC could have enjoyed home field advantage for at least a semifinal. The opportunities were there. On October 30th—the club’s last home match of the season—Pacific carried a 1-0 lead against York until the 56th minute.
“[We were] not nearly good enough,” PFC head coach Pa-Modou Kah told reporters after the match. “We let ourselves down.”
That the loss came just four days after an emphatic 5-1 victory over FC Edmonton brought the West Coast club’s contradictions into stark relief. To prognosticate about Pacific’s playoff fortunes is to deal with two realities, two sides to the club.
How you feel about the Tridents’ chances depends on which side you believe to be closer to the truth.
To prognosticate about Pacific’s playoff fortunes is to deal with two realities, two sides to the club. How you feel about the Tridents’ chances depends on which side you believe to be closer to the truth.
Pacific FC enter the playoffs riding the second-worst streak of any remaining team.1 And yet! Pacific FC have also outscored their opponents by a mile in 2021.2 And yet! Pacific FC have not won two matches in a row since early September.3 And yet! Pacific will have the luxury of nearly two weeks’ rest by the time they face the Cavs. And yet! Pacific have won just once at ATCO Field in 2021.4 And yet! That lone victory was in a single-game knockout for the Canadian Championship quarterfinal. And yet! Pacific’s biggest star, Marco Bustos, hasn’t played since injuring his knee against Toronto FC on November 3rd. And yet! There’s plenty of time to heal ahead of November 20th.
And yet, and yet, and yet.
If you are the worrying type, there’s more than enough cause for concern.
Lukas MacNaughton, Pacific’s most reliable centre-back, will miss the CPL semifinal due to yellow card accumulation. Without Bustos, Pacific’s attacking front looked listless against Cavalry FC on November 7th. Over 90 minutes, they were outshot and out-duelled in convincing fashion (13 shots to nine, and 60.4% possession to 39.6%, respectively). Kah’s side didn’t even register a single shot on target against Marco Carducci.
If you are an optimist, well, look back to September 22nd.
Pacific are capable of outshooting Cavalry FC at Spruce Meadows—even when losing the possession battle.5 They are also capable of coming behind to beat the Cavs—as they did, 3-1, on September 9th. They have won big without Bustos before—and if he’s healthy and plays, well, they’ve fared pretty well with him too.
Forge FC and York United FC
If Pacific can emerge victorious, one of two paths awaits them—and both are equally fitting.
A date in the final against two-time champion Forge FC would give Pacific a chance to vanquish their greatest demon on the grandest stage. Winless in nine matches against Bobby Smyrniotis’ side, a trip to Tim Hortons Field provides the perfect proving ground. Are they champions or pretenders? The question looms.
If both York United and Pacific play semifinal spoilers and upset their higher-seeded opponents, Pacific would host the Canadian Premier League final at Starlight Stadium. There is a fair share of mirroring in these clubs. After two seasons as the CPL’s de-facto young team, Pacific have ceded the youth movement to Jimmy Brennan’s York United side in 2021. Led by midfielder Max Ferrari (2,159 minutes), the Nine Stripes’ Canadian U-21 players have racked up a combined 8,494 minutes in 2021—nearly 7,000 more than the required 1,500 minutes that each club must guarantee. The chance for Pacific to rewrite the score after October 30th’s loss would be tempting, too.
Final thoughts
Kunle Dada-Luke has emerged as a reliable wing-back option down the stretch for Pacific FC. After a shaky start to the season, the former Toronto FC II talent has found his on-ball touch and shown some solid attacking instincts along the right flank—giving Kah license to switch Kadin Chung to left-back, if he so chooses.
Bustos’ health has domino effects for the starting lineup. If he’s game-ready on November 20th, Kah has the luxury of choosing between Josh Heard and Terran Campbell on the left wing, with Alejandro Díaz at centre forward. If Heard starts, Campbell’s a solid first attacking sub to spell off Díaz or Bustos. And if Campbell starts, Heard brings an immediate burst of energy as a 60th minute substitution.
Victor Blasco, as much as he’s seen success before, hasn’t found his form in 2021. No blame on his part—it’s been a challenging year. His footwork allows him to create for himself in a way that not every Pacific wing option can, but the offense hasn’t gelled yet when he’s started. I’d expect him in a reserve role in the playoffs—though a chance at silencing the Foot Soldiers faithful at ATCO Field would be sweet.
Pacific FC have managed six points in their last six matches, putting them just a notch ahead of fourth-place York United FC (five points). By contrast, first- and second-place Forge FC and Cavalry FC have amassed thirteen and eleven points, respectively. (Note: both Forge and Cavalry still have games remaining.)
Pacific FC tallied a league-best 47 goals in 28 games. Forge FC (39 goals), with two regular season games remaining, could theoretically surpass them, but it would take a minor miracle—and with first place secured, there’s no reason for the Hamilton side to play their starters any more than absolutely necessary.
Between August 29th and September 9th, Pacific FC earned wins against Valour FC (3-2), FC Edmonton (2-1), and Cavalry FC (3-1).
In four appearances at Spruce Meadows, Pacific have also managed just two goals.
Trailing Cavalry FC in possession (40.5% to 59.5%), Kah’s Pacific FC outshot Tommy Wheeldon, Jr.’s side fifteen to nine, with four shots on target to Cavalry’s two.